Sophia’s Thoughts on the Presidential Candidates
Ahead of today's debate, we took a look at the stances of both leading presidential candidates on crypto. How will their positions shape the future of the market?
These are Sophia's Thoughts:
Kamala Harris has yet to take a clear stance on cryptocurrency, leaving the industry uncertain about her administration’s potential approach to regulation.
Donald Trump has made a bold pivot toward supporting crypto, promising industry-friendly policies and backing Bitcoin innovation in the U.S.
Despite the buzz, we believe the long-term impact of the election on crypto will be minimal as markets will quickly adjust once the uncertainty is resolved.
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🚀 Last week’s market performance
The market continued trending downwards this week, losing 3.6%. Bitcoin (BTC) followed suit, falling 3.6% as well. The best performing coin of the week was the meme token ApeCoin (APE), which rallied in anticipation of ApeChain’s mainnet launch. The worst performing coin was Astar (ASTR) which lost 11% over the week.
🧐 What is your crypto mood today?
In each Sophia's Thoughts newsletter, we ask about your crypto mood. Your response to this question helps Sophia get a better sense of the pulse of crypto markets. And this ultimately translates into better insights for you when combined with Sophia's AI models. Your data empowers Sophia to provide you with even better intelligence going forward!
🟦 Harris Position
Kamala Harris's stance on cryptocurrency has been notably absent from her campaign platform, leaving many in the crypto industry wondering where she truly stands. Although she has yet to make public statements specifically about Bitcoin or blockchain technology, her administration has shown some signs of interest in the broader tech sector. Harris has expressed support for "cutting-edge industries" in her recently released policy positions such as artificial intelligence, which some crypto advocates interpret as a subtle nod to innovation in general.
However, any direct support for the crypto space remains uncertain. Harris's campaign has reached out to tech influencers like Mark Cuban with questions about digital assets, which could signal an openness to learning more about the industry. But the Democratic Party’s official platform has made no mention of cryptocurrency, and Harris’s absence from discussions about crypto regulation leaves the community questioning whether she will follow President Biden's more skeptical approach.
Adding to the uncertainty, some in the crypto world remain cautious about Harris’s lack of engagement with the industry, especially given the Biden administration’s regulatory crackdown. Harris has left many in the sector wondering if her presidency would bring any major shifts in U.S. crypto policy since she has provided no clear stance on crypto.
🟥 Trump Position
Donald Trump has taken a sharp pivot toward supporting cryptocurrencies in the lead-up to the 2024 election, a significant shift from his previous stance when he referred to Bitcoin as a "scam" during his presidency. Now, Trump is positioning himself as a champion of the crypto industry and is openly courting crypto voters and donors. His latest public statements, made during the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville, Tennessee, reflect his commitment to making the U.S. a hub for cryptocurrency innovation and mining.
Trump has made several promises to the crypto community. If elected, he has vowed to create a "strategic national bitcoin stockpile" where the government would hold onto and acquire Bitcoin. This would be akin to the U.S. gold reserve, designed to legitimize and stabilize Bitcoin as a national asset. He also promised to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler on his first day in office. This drew massive applause from attendees as Gensler has become a key figure in regulatory crackdowns on crypto exchanges like Coinbase and Binance.
In addition to Trump’s evolving stance, his selection of Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate who is a long-time Bitcoin advocate has further solidified his pro-crypto stance. Vance’s involvement in crafting industry-friendly crypto legislation and holding over USD 100,000 in Bitcoin underscores the ticket’s commitment to fostering a pro-crypto environment in the U.S.
While Trump’s embrace of crypto has fueled optimism within the industry, many remain cautious. Investors are aware that his shift could be opportunistic, aimed at attracting financial support from wealthy crypto backers. Nonetheless, the crypto community is rallying behind Trump in hopes that his policies could lead to a more favorable regulatory environment for the industry.
🇺🇸 Crypto impact
While there is plenty of debate about whether a Trump or Harris presidency would be better for crypto, we believe neither will have a substantial long-term impact. Much of the market's movement leading up to the election stems from uncertainty as investors try to process potential outcomes. By nature, markets react and price in new information instantaneously. Once the election is concluded and the uncertainty is resolved, prices will adjust accordingly in reflection of the new political landscape.
In essence, the long-term effects of the election will likely be priced in almost immediately following the election results which reduces its lasting impact on the crypto market. Though short-term volatility is expected, the broader trajectory of crypto will ultimately hinge on fundamental factors such as technological developments, fiscal and monetary policy, and the overall state of the economy, rather than political shifts.
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